Here’s what the latest statistics say about migration patterns in America.

Who’s moving where in our country? United Van Lines recently released the company’s 44th Annual National Migration Study that revealed that Americans in 2020 continued to move westward and southbound. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic factored into and accelerated many decisions to move. 

I was particularly interested in this article because I had an inkling that my state was near the top of the list. As it happens, Idaho had the highest percentage of inbound migration at 70% (among states experiencing more than 250 moves with United Van Lines). That marks the second consecutive year Idaho has topped the list. 

Outside of Idaho, the states with the highest inbound migration were South Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Arizona. In terms of outbound migration (i.e., where people were moving from), the top states were New York, Illinois, Connecticut, and California. Most of the people coming to our area are from California, Arizona, Texas, Washington, and Oregon. As you can see, most migrants from the westerly states are staying in their region but relocating to Idaho.

"Americans in 2020 continued to move westward and southbound."

What are the reasons behind these migration patterns? According to United Van Lines, 40% moved because of a new job or job transfer—which is significantly down from prior years—and 27% moved to be closer to family—which is significantly up from prior years. Data from March to October also revealed that the pandemic did indeed influence Americans’ decision to move. For those who cited the pandemic as an influence on their move, the top reasons were the health and wellbeing of themselves and their family (60%), the desire to be closer to family (59%), and changes in employment (57%). Basically, this means a lot of people figured since they were working from home, they could work anywhere and wanted a better quality of life. Of course, Idaho is a fabulous place to be. 

As I already alluded to above, United Van Lines’ data makes it clear that migration to western and southern states has been and continues to be a prevalent pattern. For retirement purposes, Montana and Delaware experienced more inbound migration than any other state, followed by Florida and South Carolina. The primary reason more people overall moved to Idaho is our favorable cost of living. I don’t know how long this favorable cost of living will last, but I do know Idaho is a great place to live!

If you’d like to take a deeper dive into this data, use this link to see United Van Lines’ interactive map. If you have questions about this topic, don't hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to help you.

Here’s the latest news and stats for Ada County in January 2021.

Today I have the latest numbers for our real estate market. Things are looking a lot like they were at the end of 2020. Prices are up, inventory is low, and demand is high. Things are looking great; we just need some homes for sale.

Cited below for your convenience are timestamps that will direct you to various points in the video. Feel free to watch the full message or use these timestamps to skip to topics that interest you most:

0:45- The key numbers to know for Ada County from January 2021

2:05- A look back at how the average days from listing to accepted offer has dropped over the last decade and how fast our team is selling homes right now

3:37- Why the market feels frantic for so many homebuyers and how they’re trying to compete

4:46- The share of existing/resale homes by price range in Ada County from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021

5:37- Wrapping things up

I think we’ll continue to see great numbers this year for buyers and sellers. Inventory remains low and while demand is high, interest rates are making homes more affordable for buyers.

If you have any questions for me, don’t hesitate to reach out via phone or email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Will the rise in forbearance plans lead to economic turmoil?

Many people have been taking advantage of forbearance plans due to the pandemic, but how will they affect our market? Will it lead to an onslaught of foreclosures? A recent article from the blog Keeping Current Matters addresses this, but in short, the answer is no. Almost three million households are actively in a forbearance plan right now, and though 29% of those in forbearance have remained current on their payments, many have not.

The principal economist at CoreLogic said that 39% of all forborne loans are 150 days or more behind payment, and as many as 25% are 180 days or more past due. So with forbearance, homeowners have been given permission to not make their payments, but the question becomes: How many of them will be able to catch up after their forbearance period ends?

There is speculation that a forthcoming wave of foreclosures could be the result, leading to another crash like we saw more than a decade ago. I witnessed that crash when it happened; I specialized in selling short sales and helped many homeowners avoid foreclosure through the pre-foreclosure process. I can safely say that today’s situation is very different from that housing crisis. Why? Because a majority of homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity in their homes.

"With enough equity, a homeowner has the option to sell their home or tap into their equity through a refinance to help weather the economic shock."

We have just seen an increase in home values over the last few years—even with the pandemic, we saw a 24% increase in prices in our area just this last year. This may mean that there is an increase in the number of homes listed for sale, but because people have equity in their homes, they may choose to sell at what is arguably the top of the market and downsize to a more affordable home rather than face foreclosure. With enough equity, a homeowner has the option to sell their home or tap into their equity through a refinance to help weather the economic shock. 

Won’t the additional homes on the market impact prices? The short answer is no. Realtor.com says that nationally, the number of homes for sale was down by 39.6% in 2020. As you might remember from my last market report, inventory in Ada County was down by 80% from last year. Ultimately, there weren’t enough homes for sale then, and there still aren’t enough now. The national market has the potential to absorb half a million homes this year without it causing home values to depreciate.

The bottom line is that the pandemic has led to both personal and economic hardships for many Americans. The overall residential real estate market, however, has weathered the storm and will continue to do so in 2021.

If you have any questions about forbearance plans or the real estate market, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to hear from you.

It’s time to look back on our 2020 market and look ahead to 2021.

In 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ada County market outpaced the previous year. 

The year started strong, with January sales up 21% year over year. Of course, things began to taper off in February and March as the uncertainty of the pandemic made its way to our local market. In April and May, when the spring market typically ramps up, sales activity dropped by 19% and 30%. This was mostly due to the government-mandated shutdowns and restrictions. Fortunately, sales began to pick back up in June, and in July they rose 22% year over year. Sales remained elevated all the way through November, and the market squeezed a year's worth of sales into six months. 

In total, 11,728 homes sold, which is a 5% increase compared to 2019. The only other time we saw more sales in one year was 2005, which had 11,974 sales. Low interest rates allowed home sales to quickly recover and outpace 2019 levels. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.1% throughout the year, which is the lowest mark on record (dating all the way back to 1971). These low rates increased buyers’ purchasing power and allowed them to buy despite rising prices. 

A major factor (and one I talk about all the time) that pushed home prices upward was insufficient supply compared to demand—especially for existing inventory. For most of the year, the average days on market for existing homes was 20 days. In 2019, this average was 42 days. In October, the average days on market dropped to just 13 days, which was a record low based on data going back to 2004. This meant buyers had to act quickly and write a competitive offer if they found a home they wanted, and this is still the case in 2021.

"With prices as high as they are and inventory as low as it is, now is a great time for all homeowners to consider selling."

On the last day of December 2020, there were just 333 homes for sale for both existing and new construction homes—an 80% drop compared to December 2019 and another record low. As I always say, more inventory is needed to rebalance all price points. There were two major factors restricting inventory. The first was something we’ve already mentioned: low rates. In addition to encouraging buyers to buy, they also encouraged homeowners to refinance and stay in their homes. The second was COVID-related safety concerns and the general uncertainty of not being able to find a new home after listing. 

Thankfully, builders have been responding to this demand. According to Construction Monitor, 3,336 permits were approved for new single-family homes throughout 2020. When we compare this permit count to the 4,010 new homes that sold in 2020, it suggests we’re not overbuilding, as demand is absorbing all the supply that becomes available and reinforcing the need to build. 

As we look ahead to the rest of 2021, the Boise metro area continues to be among many economists' top picks for markets that should see continued growth. The National Association of Realtors even included Boise on their list of markets that are expected to perform well in a post-COVID environment. However, as stated above, we need more inventory among new and existing products to balance the market out. Homeowners: I’m talking to you—consider listing in the coming months and taking advantage of all this demand.

An additional opportunity for more existing homes comes from investors holding single-family properties. If you or someone you know owns a single-family home as an investment, call me so we can discuss your options for selling the home and potentially exchanging it for another asset category or diversifying your portfolio. 

The bottom line is that with prices as high as they are and inventory as low as it is, now is a great time for all homeowners to consider selling. If you’d like to take advantage of our market or have any real estate needs at all, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to speak with you.

Supply is low and demand is high in our Ada County market.

We’re well into December, which means it’s time to look back on November to see our latest market statistics. 

In short, November saw some great numbers, with even more record pricing. The median price for resale homes rose to $425,000, which is an 18% jump year over year and a considerable increase compared to October ($406,000). This new record is the result of insufficient supply running up against persistently strong demand fueled by historically low mortgage rates. The median price for new construction homes, meanwhile, was $429,000. I’ve never seen these two averages so close together; usually, the median price for new construction homes is way higher. 

There were 887 home sales in November, which constituted a 2.5% year-over-year increase. Only 408 homes were listed on the market, which is a whopping 75% decrease compared to the 16,031 listings we saw in November 2019. Why did we see an increase in home sales and a decrease in inventory? I briefly touched on this in my last market update, but these numbers are a snapshot from the last day of the month. Whatever’s available on that day is marked as inventory. Since the average days on market is just 18 days for all homes, they can be listed and sold without ever being counted as inventory.

The average days on market for resale homes is 13 days, and we’re often seeing these properties go under contract in just a handful of days with multiple offers. The average days on market for new construction homes is 29 days, so as with other types of properties, these can be listed and sold without ever being counted as inventory.

"Home sales are expected to grow by 7% in 2021, and

prices are projected to increase by 3% to 4%."

Mortgage rates hovered around 2.77% last month, which is a 24% drop compared to last year. Based on the current median price, that’s a monthly mortgage payment of about $1,400 (assuming you were to put down 20%). Mortgage rates are forecasted to remain low throughout 2021. According to Freddie Mac, interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage are expected to remain at or near 3%. Of course, these low rates will continue to make homes more affordable and drive demand in the coming year. 

Additionally, home sales are expected to grow by 7% in 2021, and prices are projected to increase by 3% to 4%. This implies that our market will stabilize. Granted, our area experiences higher price increases than the national average. 

If you’d like to know more about our market or how these numbers affect your buying or selling plans, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to speak with you. If you’re thinking of selling soon, just know that our market could use the inventory, and the demand is definitely there. I hope you have a wonderful rest of 2020, and I’ll see you in the new year!

Here’s how to maximize profits but minimize your expenses when selling.

One of the first things I discuss with potential sellers is how they can maximize their profits while minimizing expenses. Today I’ll provide tips to help with this. You can use these tips even if you aren’t considering selling soon and just want to freshen up your home. This is also the checklist we use when flipping houses.

Feel free to watch the full message above, or use these timestamps that will direct you to various points in the video.

0:00: Introduction to today’s topic

0:50: Tip 1- Curb appeal

1:35: Tip 2- Paint

2:20: Tip 3- Floors

3:30: Tip 4- Hardware

4:35: Tip 5- Lighting

5:35: Tip 6- Cleaning

6:00: Tip 7- Kitchen appliances

6:30: Tip 8- Window coverings

6:50: Wrapping up today’s topic

If you have any questions, want to know more, or would like me to share this checklist with you, feel free to give me a call or send an email. I would love to help you.

Here’s what you should know about our real estate market right now. 

Our real estate market is on fire. As we close out September, we have all kinds of new records that are being broken.

Back in August, Ada County hit a new all-time high with a median sales price of $400,000. The median price of existing homes is at $385,000, while the new construction median price is $445,000.

We’ve also seen a dramatic decrease in homes for sale over the last year. There are 72% fewer homes for sale now than there were at this time last year. We have just 0.3 months of inventory, so there are a very limited number of homes for buyers to choose from. With inventory extremely low and lumber prices increasing, new homes are only going to get more expensive. Lumber is actually up 80% in cost since April.

Despite low inventory, off-market new construction homes are allowing us to have a more consistent sales numbers. With so many buyers out looking, builders are selling homes that aren’t even built yet and therefore not reflected in the stats because they don’t exist. In August, nearly 25% of new homes sold were not previously listed on the MLS. This should give buyers some hope that there are still options available even though things might seem bleak.

"We could still see another surge after the election."

The main reason demand is so high right now is due to record-low mortgage interest rates. The average rate at the last market peak in August 2006 was 6.5%. Today, buyers are locking in rates under 3%. This has kept monthly payments roughly the same despite the increase in prices over the years.

As you know, we have an election coming up. What does that mean for home sales? Generally speaking, elections breed uncertainty and people don’t like that. With everything that's going on right now, people are nervous about whether they should sell now or wait until the dust settles. Historically speaking, you typically see a decline in sales and prices leading up to an election, but we haven’t seen that decline in 2020. Part of that is due to pent-up demand from the COVID lockdown and demand for homes in this area in general remains high. We could still see another surge after the election.

This is truly a unique year with everything that’s gone on. From what I’m seeing out in the market right now, I don’t anticipate a slowdown at all this fall or winter.

If you have any questions for me about the market or real estate in general, don’t hesitate to reach out via phone or email. I look forward to hearing from you soon. 

Here’s how I explain to homeowners the issue of AVM accuracy.  

How accurate are Zestimates, or any other online, automated valuation models (AVMs) available to homeowners these days? I even have a great valuation tool that I use (see the links in my email and blog page), and it’s a wonderful starting point, but homeowners should know that the accuracy of online estimates depends on a few factors. 

For example, if you live in a neighborhood with cookie-cutter homes that were all built around the same time by the same builder, your Zestimate may be more accurate. On the other hand, if you live in a neighborhood with a more diverse selection of homes (like where I live in the north end of Boise), you know very well that there can be a million-dollar home sitting next to a $250,000 home or even a home that desperately needs to be revamped. Those neighborhoods are harder for AVMs to calculate. 

Also, Zillow doesn’t have access to any of the updates you’ve made to the home. Do you have granite in the kitchen now? Did you get a new roof? Did you lay down new flooring? Most of the updates you can make to a home aren’t logged in the public record, which is the primary data source for a Zestimate. So how can Zillow really claim to know your house’s value?

On top of this, Idaho is a non-disclosure state, meaning that our sales prices are not recorded and made available to the public. This makes things especially hard for Zillow and other AVMs to find any sort of reference point for your home. That’s probably why Zillow even makes this important disclaimer on their site: Only use Zestimates as a starting point. In essence, they acknowledge that their estimate needs to be taken with a grain of salt. 

There’s nothing wrong with using a Zestimate as a reference point when starting out, but it definitely should not be used for final pricing. It’s best to enlist the expertise of a real estate professional who has been inside countless homes within your area, has access to up-to-date MLS information, and can actually take into consideration any improvements you’ve made. 

95% of Zestimates are within 10% of the sales price, which is a pretty large margin of error when you think about a home’s value; if you have a $500,000 home, Zillow’s estimate could be a whopping $50,000 too low or too high. 

I encourage you to find out what your Zestimate is and then give me a call so we can validate it together. I’d love to use my experience and industry resources to help you identify an accurate figure for your home. If you have any questions about AVMs or real estate in general, please reach out to me by phone or email! I look forward to hearing from you. 

Some of the most frequent questions people ask me these days are: “How’s the market; are buyer’s buying; are sellers selling amid the health crisis?” The short answer is yes; people are buying and selling, and we’re in an excellent market right now. 

We saw a couple of months of declining sales due to COVID, but activity rose in June. In fact, there was a 3.4% increase in closed sales compared to June 2019. We also noted a 17% increase in pending sales, or properties preparing to close. Additionally, there’s been an increase in home prices; the median sales price is now $375,000; this includes new construction, which is about a third of our total sales. The median sales price for just existing homes is $359,000, which is up 6% from last year. 

We’re seeing many increases in our current real estate market. However, we have especially low inventory, which means we don’t have enough houses for sale. Before the coronavirus hit our region, we had a very strong market, so much of the rebound we’re currently seeing is pent-up demand from the last few months. The problem is, we have less inventory than before COVID-19 hit; it’s decreased by about 40% from last year. 

If you’re a seller, that means it’s a wonderful time to sell your property; there isn’t a ton of competition but quite a bit of demand, and prices are up. If you’re a buyer, it’s still a great time to purchase because our interest rates are currently at record lows. We just may have to get a bit creative to find the ideal home for you because of the lack of inventory. We currently have around one month of inventory, meaning if no more homes came onto the market, everything we have would sell in about a month. 

If you're considering selling, it’s a fantastic time; allow us to get more houses ready for all the buyers out there. 

If you have any questions about our current market or real estate in general, contact me via phone or email. I look forward to speaking with you.